Pemodelan Bayesian untuk Pemetaan kasus Penyakit

Abstract

This paper presents a Bayesian approach for the analysis of spatial count data. A demonstration involving incidence rates of dengue fever in Beji sub-district, Depok City is used highlight the methodology. The model allows us to make probability statements on the incidence rates around point sources with making any parametric assumptions about the nature of the influence between the sources and the surrounding location. The objective of this paper is to estimate the rate dengue cases using Bayesian modeling and compute the standardized morbidity ratio (SMR) of the disease through Maximum Likelihood. The results show that some sub sub-districts are statistically significant as the high dengue cases; the are Beji and Tanah Baru sub sub-district.